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149599-ncsoft-earnings-q4-2015
Content ---- ---- ---- ---- :D :P | |} ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- Expertise is not required to understand the only two things relevant to this game: 1. The revenues are up compared to the several month stretch preceding F2P. That's good, because if that hadn't happened this game would be dead in the water. 2. The revenues are still a tiny fraction of those from every other game in NCSoft's portfolio--small enough that this game's entire revenue stream is about the same as the quarter-to-quarter fluctuations in revenue for the other games. That's bad, it means the game simply can't afford a lot of development and promotion. Hopefully they can leverage the coming China and Steam markets into further increases in revenue, which will translate into further resources for development. | |} ---- ---- I would definitely be interested in seeing the regional breakdown for each of NCSoft's games, to compare the US contribution of those with WS's numbers. That said, an improvement is an improvement, and I'm happy to see it, even if others aren't. | |} ---- ---- Well the graph shows revenue and at the end of the day that's the metric that counts. As long as it makes enough money we'll be fine. I think that's a bit unfair. GW2 has released an expansion and you have to buy the full game again to even just 'upgrade' to the expansion so they have b2p money currently rolling in. B&S has just released as a new game in the West so there's plenty of people wanting to try it out and they'll have bought 'packs' too. On the forums it seems that the boom is over for B&S so it would be interesting their numbers next quarter. L2 has the advantage of being a long established game at a time when not so much competition is around. It's the same for World of warcraft in that people have spent so much time that leaving is giving up a lot. MMOs as well are just not as popular as they were when these games were at their peak. I think they current Wildstar model is just too generous. Omnibits are a fantastic addition but for Carbine/NCSoft it would mean that patient people will save up and then buy what they want instead of getting out their credit card. I think they should have abandoned the signature service as you can't make a sub attractive enough with out making it essentially p2w. I think they should have made it buy to play, that way any player has to put down an initial investment. GW2 basically. CREDD could have been kept and instead of bonuses it could have given some omnibits instead; it couldn't have given NCoin since other games use it too. | |} ---- Yea the BnS hype seem to have settled and it also seems like players are moving on to other games. The game probably made good money in january so Q1 will be looking good for the game but Q2 will be interesting to see. I've come to the conclusion that Wildstar f2p-model might be too generous as well. Looking at what happens with Rift now, that used to have a generous model and Wildstar is even more generous than that (f2p-players can use AH, in Rift a purchase needed to be done to unlock). B2p is a bit late now, but I wouldn't mind if Carbine charged for an uncoming expansion should there be one. The signature should be kept, especially since some people are subscribed already for years to come. But it needs to be made more attractive. Omnibit system is extremely generous for f2p-players that haven't had to buy anything at all. It would make sense to me if Carbine reduced the omnibits to 60/week for f2p-players and increased it to perhaps 200/week for signature. I'm usually very critical to bad f2p-models, boycotted Star wars, never sat a foot in Aion EU after f2p-launch because of the restrictive model. However I still understand that a company must make money in order to afford developing the game. That's why I can understand many costs being added in the game and accept most of them, except when they go p2win, or try to restrict f2p-players too much. | |} ---- ---- ---- ---- In west it wasn't considered one and got shut down here. But in the east they seem to be loving it, for... don't know what reasons :) | |} ---- There wasn’t a sales breakdown by region for each game but overall this is how it falls: Sales by Region: 64% Korea 15% US/EU 12% Royalty 5% Japan 5% Taiwan For the US/EU region you can rule out Lineage as it closed down in 2011. Not really sure on B&S, it didn't release until 1Q16 but they probably had pre-sale packs going in 2015. My guess is for the US/EU region Guild Wars 2 is carrying it, especially with the expansion.....with Lineage 2/Wildstar being the next highest. Lol, I just can't believe Aion is doing much in this region but heck I could be totally wrong. But I'm with you, would love to see a breakdown by game. Edited February 11, 2016 by Ayshe | |} ---- ---- ---- It's been mentioned before, but it would be better to compare revenue from US from each game with WS, as NCSoft's big hitters are multi-regional, with Korea making up a HUGE chunk of their numbers. I wouldn't feel so bad about WS coming in last for that reason. | |} ---- Absolutely this! 1. I want to sub with money but ingame CREDD only costs about 10p. If an actual cash sub offered me something decent I'd pay it. 2. Most of what's in the store is just reskins of reskins. There is nothing even remotely interesting in there. All the good (not just reskin) mounts are stuck behind the RNG event boxes or the Osun mount is stuck behind cosmic rewards. I saw the new ingame mount for Arcterra and actually thought "why the hell isn't it on the store for people to buy!". | |} ---- Q1 will be roughly the same (likely a small decrease) Q2 will be a massive increase with Arcterra, China, and Steam Lets say Q1 2015 is 2.5 million and it tripples That would make 7.5 million for Q2, a massive increase compared to 2015. But in reality, With China being far bigger than NA AAAAND steam being basically another f2p launch. Lets say it for up x5 (very likely) 12.5 million Wildstar is here to stay... Using my super not smart at all calculations | |} ---- This just this... couldnt say it better myself... Hopefully since leadership has passed hands pappy will do this game justice. Pappy if your reading this we need more cosmetics in the cash shop.. we need costume styles that will get our attention.. whats currently offered for the most part looks like rags from a second hand store (insert prince song here).. WE need eye gouging deco styles that when you buy unlock them in the vender... wall textures ect would work perfectly here. How about some deeds lets have the options of buying more housing plugs and im not talking about the holiday ones that share the same deco limit as the plot.. im talking about buying a deed to unlock an additional housing plug with its own deco limits... sell us the options to buy several... Mounts and more of them.. cool ones. Not some beat up vehicle that you find in an auto junk yard.. Lets have more fluff and stuff... WE NEED EYE CANDY CARBINE!!!! | |} ---- While I agree with much of this. At the red? Yes. Yes! YES!! At least walls that match the wallpaper that you can buy in the "remodel" feature. That's been sorely needed since launch. As well as being able to restore the default lighting and walls, after you change them. | |} ---- ---- A few points: Q4 of 2014 was hot off the heals of the release bubble. The numbers... really aren't that small... we are talking about a difference of around a BILLION korean won (roughly a million USD)... Let me say that again... and increase of just under a billion korean won over the previous quarter (an increase in revenue of almost a million USD) As it stands, if W* keeps close to those numbers (which it almost assuredly will given steam and China releases) we are talking about annual income on the order of 10+ million USD... That's really quite GOOD for a niche game like this, and even pretty good for a game period. Yes there are costs on NCSoft and Carbines end, but from the looks of things (last I checked they were hiring) the cost to sustain the game is more than covered by the income. Could I be mistaken? Sure, but all current indicators look very positive. | |} ---- Here's to hoping. I certainly wouldn't say very positive, but better than another down trend... absolutely. Crabin just needs more (meaty) content (plus huge PvP revamps), flat out. The new zone is dandy, but I don't expect it'll be more than a flash in the pan, and certainly isn't going to bring me back, or the 20 something guild mates who quit over the last month because there wasn't any progression in sight. Might keep some casual players strung out for a week or two, until interest dies down and there aren't enough bodies for the events. I genuinely hope a steam/china release will keep the game afloat long enough for me to see the next raid though (in what, 4-6mo?), nothing has ever touched WS in terms of fun raiding in my book. Edited February 12, 2016 by CunningLinguist | |} ---- You were in a cutting edge raiding guild. I forgot whether it was Phobos or Illicit Activity. Not that it matters, because both were farming DS for months. No offense...but you and your 20+ "Hardk0re" guild mates are quite easily replaceable, if not replaced already by 21+ casual players. You all being bored as "Muh Hardk0re!" raiders doesn't really mean that much when compared to casual raiders and casual players. Who vastly outnumber you, and are the main ones having content developed for. It's also a bit odd too, because the "I give a week, tops!" line was said about Vet Adventures, Contracts, and the new World Boss system. Which turned out to be flat out false, because all three still have players of all levels (but usually the more casual ones) doing them constantly. With the 2nd one even having people doing the level 1's (the lvl 2's and 3's goes without saying) like they're going out of style, and the last one still being grouped for with marathon farming groups on a near daily basis. The rest of your post, well....just your second sentence in the 1st paragraph and the latter half of the sentence in the 2nd paragraph, I agree with. The game does need more "meaty" content, but being a pessimist when it's delivered to you, is just being flatout counterproductive and short-sighted. Edited February 12, 2016 by Dharnell | |} ---- ---- ---- Let's not rip at the hardcores and derail the thread. As a casual person I've not really done much of the new content. Casual raiding is the only reason I log in right now. I'd do housing but I need other stuff to do while doing that if it makes sense. I also feel like the new zone will be a 1 week experience | |} ---- ---- You could try your luck at the rng lock boxes.....! Not. But I agree with your sentiment. I'd love to throw my money at Carbine for more mounts and costumes personally. But they won't get any when RNG is involved | |} ---- ---- ---- NCSoft doesn't operate in China. Actually, very few MMO companies officially operate in China.... this release is a really big deal for NCSoft, and is really interesting from a geopolitical perspective. I'm really excited to see where it goes :D | |} ---- BnS has been in China for a bit. | |} ---- ---- Not sure if Korea accepts Taiwan (Republic of China) or China (Peoples Republic of China) as "China". They might have lumped the release under "Taiwan". Some places do weird things with the two countries given the "unique" geopolitics. | |} ---- ---- They tend to do it via a local publisher. Even Blizzard does it via a publisher. Apparently it's due to some laws. | |} ---- ---- Dude. There is nothing to be upset over in the Q4 report. The game is back above Q1 levels from last year (foolish to think it would get above Q4 2014 levels, as that was the launch quarter), with a general upward trend. Comparing it to NCSoft's other MMOs is questionable, as they all include significant contributions from other regions (especially Korea). I'm seriously just... why can't you people be happy at an improvement?? xD | |} ---- Those things are unhealthy. Go eat an apple. | |} ---- Because while you have a very delicious cupcake, someone else has bigger cupcake, with more frosting and sprinkles. :lol: | |} ---- These are the forums Nau.... only for Hardcore dissatisfaction at good things ;) | |} ---- Okay. :P | |} ---- Here's a bit of context: It's an F student eking out a D. Going in the right direction but still on probation. They really do need to get back to at least half of their launch revenue. I'm a little disconcerted that the F2P conversion didn't give them an even higher boost than it did. OTOH a lot of subs were coasting on the four month grant so maaaaybe sub revenue will pick up some as that expires. That said I'm fairly optimistic about Wildstar's continuing operation at least for another 18-24 months. NCSoft wouldn't invest in China or Steam if they weren't willing to give Carbine time to build those markets. I like Pappy's enthusiasm for the game and expect him to provide guidance to both Carbine and NCSoft that's good for the long term health of the game and to not sacrifice it on the altar of short-term profits. While the wait was somewhat frustrating, we're finally seeing content plans being rolled out. If they can keep up the pace -- and I believe they can -- Wildstar will have a bright future. The student may be struggling but the remedial plan is in place and there's progress. | |} ---- ---- ---- ---- While I share your optimism, I....don't know if your grading analogy works, and that "They're an F student eeking out a D." Since they're above their three previous lowest "grades." | |} ---- Which is immaterial. Wildstar doesn't need to pull more money than their much bigger competitors; they need only pull a profit given their much smaller operating budget. Do you think it's cheap running a game in multiple markets? For all the Money Lineage, WoW, or FFXIV make in Korea/Japan/ etc it costs a hell of a lot more to maintain those operations than a smaller game like this. | |} ---- And until Carbine shows us (which they won't do, since we're not their investors/owner) what their overhead is, and shows us that it costs close to run the game as much as it does for their other IPs, then about 95% of that pessimism is baseless. If it makes enough of a profit to keep the content coming, then that's all that matters. Edited February 16, 2016 by Dharnell | |} ---- ---- ---- You can, but it relies in people accepting logic and reason. Like most things in life, the magnitude of income doesn't matter, the difference between income and costs does. You can make little money but spend far less and profit greatly; or you can make much money but spend much money and come out in the red. If people are focused on the wrong metric, that's par for the course, and why we still have major issues with public perception of anyting more challenging than plunging a toilet (e.g. pick any scientific fact people think is controversial but isn't) | |} ---- ---- None of this is in a vacuum. The people that are concerned are wise to be so. NCSOFT has a history of killing titles that tool along making enough money to cover costs and a bit of profit on the side. If Wildstar can break the 10k mark on those charts by mid year, it's probably out of "The Danger Zone". But right now you are basically staring at cancellation roulette. | |} ---- One title (CoH)...... after nearly a decade of existence (just oer 8 years IIRC)... a game that settled a major lawsuit with Marvel studios for infringement and changed hands between multiple development studios..... | |} ---- People always compare Wildstar's trajectory to City of Heroes, but the circumstances are far from similar. Years prior to CoH's shuttering, NCSoft fully acquired the IP and the development studio with the intention of creating a second development house (after the one in Austin) in North America. Paragon Studios (then NCSoft NorCal) was established not just to run CoH but also to develop additional games. Despite City of Heroes turning a profit, at the time, Paragon Studios also had two other IPs in development which means CoH's profits might not have outweighed the cost of running the studio. CoH's closure also came after NCSoft lost $6 million in the previous quarter, meaning they had to make some overture to shareholders to ensure they were fixing things. NCSoft's decision to close Paragon Studios might not have been entirely due to CoH, but Paragon Studios as a whole. In regards to this, there was also a lot of theorizing (though obviously never substantiated), that NCSoft's closing of Paragon Studios was so they could put all their chips behind GW2. CoH may have been making money, but GW2 had the potential to make much more. A lot of people look at the fact that CoH's closure was announced (8/31/2012) just days after GW2's launch (8/28/2012) as evidence of this. Considering how well GW2 was selling at the time. it was a very easy thing to do to ensure the following quarter would be up. Comparatively, Carbine is a much smaller studio and was recently moved in-house. As far as we know, their focus is entirely on Wildstar and don't have any additional operating costs outside of that. They can make less money than Paragon Studios and still be more profitable due to lower operation costs. Even so, despite Wildstar's profits not rising as high as expected, NCSoft just had one of their best quarters and its stock is steadily climbing (compared to the freefall it was in in 2012) so there isn't currently pressure for them to cut costs. As far as we know, NCSoft also does not have any MMOs in development in NA that might make them want to shift their focus from Wildstar (and it's unlikely to happen anytime soon considering how far in advance MMOs are announced). And, as others have mentioned, Wildstar has yet to launch in China - a place where CoH could never get off the ground (superheroes didn't translate as well at the time). I'm not saying this to paint a pretty picture and say everything is a-ok. I'm saying Paragon Studios and Carbine Studios are very different companies. We can't look at the numbers CoH pulled and compare them to Wildstar because that doesn't show the entire picture nor consider all the circumstances that led up to CoH's closing. Edited February 17, 2016 by Cantatus | |} ---- ---- Tabula Rasa? I can always tell when someone namedrops this "trump card", without having actually played it, because it's a huge false equivalency to compare that to WS. TR was pretty much doomed from the start. Sure it had a few good ideas, like the pre-cursor to Dual Specs in WoW (and other MMOs afterwards), but the game was so poorly coded that almost all of it had to be redone over the course of its lifespan. The game was playing developmental catch-up with it's core elements/engine from day one, and had so many conflicts with it, that it boggled the minds of even an amateur programmer (at the time) such as myself that it lasted for a month. Let alone more than a year. LOL! It's a big fat stretch to say that Wildstar is in the same boat. Edited February 17, 2016 by Dharnell | |} ---- ---- I didn't 'compare' or put it in 'the same boat'. I simply listed them in the NCsoft alumni. | |} ---- ---- It's not a certainty. Just because NCsoft has killed titles in the past doesn't mean that they will definitely do it to WS. It could happen, but it's not a given. And, even if it does, it shouldn't have any bearing on your enjoyment of the game right now (in my opinion, of course). | |} ---- ---- there is literally no indication that W* is going anywhere. City of Heroes lasted over 8 years, switched development studios, and had to deal with a HUGE infringement lawsuit on NCSoft from Marvel *cupcaking* Studios that NCSoft settled for an undisclosed though undoubtedly large amount during a time when their stock and brand was already in freefall. NCSoft had one of its best years to date last year, and so far a massive media studio has not decided to sue them over it.... The two situations are no where near comparable. | |} ---- Tabula Rasa and Auto Assault were both DoA. Auto Assault was a complete write-off. Tabula Rasa only made $5.4 million in its first quarter, dropped 63% in its second, and had its numbers become so meager that NCSoft stopped reporting them altogether. Comparatively, Wildstar made over $25 million its first quarter, dropped to about $13 million its second quarter, and the F2P transition has Wildstar still out-performing either of those games. Edited February 17, 2016 by Cantatus | |} ---- No...you flatout did. And what had happened afterwards, was that your analogy blew up in your face, and caused you to backpedal. Where you're now trying to reinvent your argument and duck hide behind this vague mentioning of "alumni." Also..."this". Edited February 18, 2016 by Dharnell | |} ---- ---- ---- Q4 2014 was not WS's launch quarter. WS launched in Q2 with revenues about about 5 times higher than they were by Q4 2014. And since WS's problem has always been player retention more than player acquisition, it remains to be seen whether even that increase can be sustained past the relaunch window. We'll find out in May. The magnitude of income does matter. Small revenue means a small operating budget, which means little content development, which means worse player retention. After a judge flat-out dismissed most of Marvel's claims, NCSoft and Marvel settled out of court . By all accounts, NCSoft came out the winner in that contest and the whole thing was a done deal in 2006. CoH didn't close its doors until 2012. The idea that Marvel's lawsuit had anything at all to do with CoX's closure is just silly. A more relevant issue to CoX was that in Q2 of 2012, Nexon became the major shareholder of NCSoft and started demanding cuts everywhere. That's the same time window in which CoX announced it was being shut down. In contrast, today Nexon is gone--after having tried and failed to take over NCSoft in 2015. By the way, the only reason that they failed was that NCSoft partnered up with NetMarble to exceed Nexon's share of the company. So NCSoft is in a better position to keep Wildstar alive today than it was with CoX in 2012, but Marvel has nothing to do with it. Here's hoping NetMarble isn't as hack-and-slash as Nexon. Most MMORPGs these days have revenues that peak during launches and major expansion-pack releases. This game has been no exception to that trend. | |} ---- ---- ---- I still hold that pushing Wildstar to F2P was premature. They really should have been given three years to find their feet before they started tinkering with the funding model. | |} ---- By the 3rd year it would have had no players at all. Even the best numbers are not comparable to the worst of some. They were right to make a drastic change and I really do hope wild star succeeds as it is a great game in many regards. I think one way to help out would be to increase awareness of the game. A lot of my friends I talked to have never even heard about Wild Star. If more people mention it and talk about it in other places chances are it will grow. I gave a lot of MMO's a try before settling on wild star and I really enjoy a lot of aspects of this game as it brings a lot of fresh new mechanics to the series. With that said - everyone go and invite 10 friends \ random people today :P | |} ---- There is now way the game could have lasted that long if they were having problems right after the game's launch and YoY loss. What they should have done was did a lot of advertising and releasing it on Steam the same day it went F2P Edited February 18, 2016 by Azzurri | |} ---- Lol you're right. I'm not sure why I thought that, especially as I was around for it. xD My brain saw the graph start there and automatically was all "there's launch!". Regardless my point stands. We're on an upward trend and all news from NCSoft/Carbine points to continued additions to the game, so... I'm feeling optimistic. | |} ---- Let's not forget that one of the eventual outcomes of that dispute was Marvel hiring Cryptic Studios to develop a Marvel Universe Onine (which eventually fell through and become Champions Online). | |} ---- CoX went F2P at the end of September 2011, much like Wildstar did in 2015. Their revenues increased from going F2P about 20% in Q4 2011, and then dropped right back to where they had been before the transition by Q1 2012. They announced that they were shutting down in August 2012. So they had a bit less than a year from when they went F2P to when they were shut down, but I expect that's because it was very clear by then that going F2P had no lasting effect on their revenues. And that's the real issue: whether the increases in revenue that come with an F2P relaunch can be sustained or not. We won't know that for another 3 months. | |} ---- ----